Prediction Under Interventions: Evaluation of Counterfactual Performance Using Longitudinal Observational Data.

Predictions under interventions are estimates of what a person's risk of an outcome would be if they were to follow a particular treatment strategy, given their individual characteristics. Such predictions can give important input to medical decision-making. However, evaluating the predictive performance of interventional predictions is challenging. Standard ways of evaluating predictive performance do not apply when using observational data, because prediction under interventions involves obtaining predictions of the outcome under conditions that are different from those that are observed for a subset of individuals in the validation dataset. This work describes methods for evaluating counterfactual performance of predictions under interventions for time-to-event outcomes. This means we aim to assess how well predictions would match the validation data if all individuals had followed the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We focus on counterfactual performance evaluation using longitudinal observational data, and under treatment strategies that involve sustaining a particular treatment regime over time. We introduce an estimation approach using artificial censoring and inverse probability weighting that involves creating a validation dataset mimicking the treatment strategy under which predictions are made. We extend measures of calibration, discrimination (c-index and cumulative/dynamic AUCt) and overall prediction error (Brier score) to allow assessment of counterfactual performance. The methods are evaluated using a simulation study, including scenarios in which the methods should detect poor performance. Applying our methods in the context of liver transplantation shows that our procedure allows quantification of the performance of predictions supporting crucial decisions on organ allocation.

Cumulative incidence and risk factors for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma metastases in organ transplant recipients: The Skin Care in Organ Transplant Patients in Europe-International Transplant Skin Cancer Collaborative metastases study, a prospective multicenter study.

INTRODUCTION: Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) are believed to have an increased risk of metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), but reliable data are lacking regarding the precise incidence and associated risk factors. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, including 19 specialist dermatology outpatient clinics in 15 countries, patient and tumor characteristics were collected using standardized questionnaires when SOTRs presented with a new cSCC. After a minimum of 2 years of follow-up, relevant data for all SOTRs were collected. Cumulative incidence of metastases was calculated by the Aalen-Johansen estimator. Fine and Gray models were used to assess multiple risk factors for metastases. RESULTS: Of 514 SOTRs who presented with 623 primary cSCCs, metastases developed in 37 with a 2-year patient-based cumulative incidence of 6.2%. Risk factors for metastases included location in the head and neck area, local recurrence, size > 2 cm, clinical ulceration, poor differentiation grade, perineural invasion, and deep invasion. A high-stage tumor that is also ulcerated showed the highest risk of metastasis, with a 2-year cumulative incidence of 46.2% (31.9%-68.4%). CONCLUSIONS: SOTRs have a high risk of cSCC metastases and well-established clinical and histologic risk factors have been confirmed. High-stage, ulcerated cSCCs have the highest risk of metastasis.

Darbepoetin alfa to reduce transfusion episodes in infants with haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn who are treated with intrauterine transfusions in the Netherlands: an open-label, single-centre, phase 2, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Up to 88% of infants with haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn who are treated with intrauterine transfusions require erythrocyte transfusions after birth. We aimed to investigate the effect of darbepoetin alfa on the prevention of postnatal anaemia in infants with haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, single-centre, phase 2 randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effect of darbepoetin alfa on the number of erythrocyte transfusions in infants with haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn. All infants who were treated with intrauterine transfusion and born at 35 weeks of gestation or later at the Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, Netherlands, were eligible for inclusion. Included infants were randomised by computer at birth to treatment with 10 µg/kg darbepoetin alfa subcutaneously once a week for 8 weeks or standard care (1:1 allocation, in varying blocks of four and six, with no stratification). Treating physicians and parents were not masked to treatment allocation, but the research team, data manager, and statistician were masked to treatment allocation during the process of data collection. The primary outcome was the number of erythrocyte transfusion episodes per infant from birth up to 3 months of life in the modified intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03104426) and has been completed. FINDINGS: Between Oct 31, 2017, and April 31, 2022, we recruited 76 infants, of whom 44 (58%) were randomly assigned to a treatment group (20 [45%] were allocated to receive darbepoetin alfa and 24 [55%] were allocated to receive standard care). Follow-up lasted 3 months and one infant dropped out of the trial before commencement of treatment. A significant reduction in erythrocyte transfusion episodes was identified with darbepoetin alfa treatment compared with standard care (median 1·0 [IQR 1·0-2·0] transfusion episodes vs 2·0 [1·3-3·0] transfusion episodes; p=0·0082). No adverse events were reported and no infants died during the study. INTERPRETATION: Darbepoetin alfa reduced the transfusion episodes after intrauterine transfusion treatment for haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn. Treatment with darbepoetin alfa or other types of erythropoietin should be considered as part of the postnatal treatment of severe haemolytic disease of the fetus and newborn. FUNDING: Sanquin Blood Supply. TRANSLATION: For the Dutch translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Allogeneic Serum Eye Drops: A Randomized Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Clinical Effectiveness of Two Drop Sizes.

INTRODUCTION: Allogeneic serum from blood donors is starting to be used to treat patients with dry eye disease (DED). However, the optimal dose is not known. We therefore aimed to evaluate the clinical efficaciousness and user-friendliness of micro-sized versus conventional-sized allogeneic serum eye drops (SEDs). METHODS: In a randomized trial, patients with DED first receive micro-sized SEDs (7 µl/unit) for 1 month, followed by a 1-month washout, before receiving conventional-sized SEDs (50 µl/unit) for 1 month; or vice versa. The primary endpoint was the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) score. Secondary endpoints were tear break-up time (TBT), tear production (TP), and presence of corneal punctate lesions (CP). The user-friendliness of both application systems was also compared. A linear mixed model for cross-over design was applied to compare both treatments. RESULTS: Forty-nine patients completed the trial. The mean OSDI score significantly improved from 52 ± 3 to 41 ± 3 for micro-sized SEDs, and from 54 ± 3 to 45 ± 3 for conventional-sized SEDs. Non-inferiority (margin = 6) of micro-sized SEDs was established. We demonstrate a significant improvement for TBT in case of conventional-sized SEDs and for CP in both treatment groups. TP trended towards an improvement in both treatment groups. The user-friendliness of the conventional drop system was significantly higher. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, non-inferiority of micro-sized allogeneic SEDs was established. The beneficial effect of both SED volumes was similar as measured by the OSDI score. Although user-friendliness of the micro drop system was significantly lower, it is an attractive alternative as it saves valuable donor serum. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03539159).

Sentinel lymph node procedure in early-stage vulvar cancer: Correlation of lymphoscintigraphy with surgical outcome and groin recurrence.

INTRODUCTION: In early-stage vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) a sentinel lymph node (SLN) procedure is regarded successful if at least one SLN is removed with minimal residual radioactivity. An inguinofemoral lymphadenectomy is considered if not all SLNs visualized on lymphoscintigraphy can be found, with subsequent increased morbidity. We correlated lymphoscintigraphy findings with surgical outcome and groin recurrence with focus on number of SLNs found. METHODS: This study concerns a retrospective cohort of 171 women treated for early-stage VSCC who underwent a SLN procedure between 2000 and 2020. The risk of groin recurrence was compared after either a successful or complete SLN procedure, i.e. removal of all SLNs that were visualized on lymphoscintigraphy. RESULTS: In 13 (7.6%) groins of 171 patients SLN visualization on lymphoscintigraphy failed. In 230 of the 246 (93.5%) groins in which a SLN was visualized, at least one SLN was found during surgery. In 224 of the 246 (91.1%) groins the SLN procedure was regarded either successful (n = 14) or complete (n = 210). An isolated groin recurrence was documented in 5 out of 192 (2.6%, 95%-CI; 0.34 to 4.9) SLN-negative groins after a median follow-up of 47.0 months. All recurrences were noted in the complete SLN group (5/180 groins). The difference with the successful SLN group (0/12 groins) was not significant. CONCLUSION: Risk of groin recurrence was 2.6% after SLN negative biopsy in early-stage VSCC. The risk appeared not increased if at least one SLN was found with minimal residual radioactivity, in case more SLNs were visualized on lymphoscintigraphy.

Tell me what you want, what you really really want: Estimands in observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies.

PURPOSE: Ideally, the objectives of a pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness or safety study should dictate its design and data analysis. This paper discusses how defining an estimand is instrumental to this process. METHODS: We applied the ICH-E9 (Statistical Principles for Clinical Trials) R1 addendum on estimands - which originally focused on randomized trials - to three examples of observational pharmacoepidemiologic comparative effectiveness and safety studies. Five key elements specify the estimand: the population, contrasted treatments, endpoint, intercurrent events, and population-level summary measure. RESULTS: Different estimands were defined for case studies representing three types of pharmacological treatments: (1) single-dose treatments using a case study about the effect of influenza vaccination versus no vaccination on mortality risk in an adult population of ≥60 years of age; (2) sustained-treatments using a case study about the effect of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor versus glucagon-like peptide-1 agonist on hypoglycemia risk in treatment of uncontrolled diabetes; and (3) as needed treatments using a case study on the effect of nitroglycerin spray as-needed versus no nitroglycerin on syncope risk in treatment of stabile angina pectoris. CONCLUSIONS: The case studies illustrated that a seemingly clear research question can still be open to multiple interpretations. Defining an estimand ensures that the study targets a treatment effect that aligns with the treatment decision the study aims to inform. Estimand definitions further help to inform choices regarding study design and data-analysis and clarify how to interpret study findings.

Birthweight of children with isolated congenital heart disease-A sibling analysis study.

OBJECTIVE: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is associated with decreased birthweight (BW) compared to population-based references. The aim of this study was to compare the BW of isolated CHD cases to their siblings, thus controlling for unknown and unmeasured confounders within the family. METHODS: All isolated CHD cases in the Leiden University Medical Center were included (2002-2019). Generalized estimated equation models were constructed to compare BW z scores of CHD neonates with their siblings. Cases were clustered to minor or severe CHD and stratified according to the aortic flow and oxygenation to the brain. RESULTS: The overall BW z score of siblings was 0.032 (n = 471). The BW z score was significantly lower in CHD cases (n = 291) compared to their siblings (-0.20, p = 0.005). The results were consistent in the subgroup analysis of severe and minor CHD (BW z score difference -0.20 and -0.10), but did not differ significantly (p = 0.63). Stratified analysis regarding flow and oxygenation showed no BW difference between the groups (p = 0.1). CONCLUSION: Isolated CHD cases display a significantly lower BW z score compared to their siblings. As the siblings of these CHD cases show a BW distribution similar to the general population, this suggests that shared environmental and maternal influences between siblings do not explain the difference in BW.

Outpatient convalescent plasma therapy for high-risk patients with early COVID-19: a randomized placebo-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: The potential benefit of convalescent plasma (CP) therapy for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highest when administered early after symptom onset. Our objective was to determine the effectiveness of CP therapy in improving the disease course of COVID-19 among high-risk outpatients. METHODS: A multicentre, double-blind randomized trial was conducted comparing 300 mL of CP with non-CP. Patients were ≥50 years, were symptomatic for <8 days, had confirmed RT-PCR or antigen test result for COVID-19 and had at least one risk factor for severe COVID-19. The primary endpoint was the highest score on a 5-point ordinal scale ranging from fully recovered (score = 1) or not (score = 2) on day 7, over hospital admission (score = 3), intensive care unit admission (score = 4) and death (score = 5) in the 28 days following randomization. Secondary endpoints were hospital admission, symptom duration and viral RNA excretion. RESULTS: After the enrolment of 421 patients and the transfusion in 416 patients, recruitment was discontinued when the countrywide vaccination uptake in those aged >50 years was 80%. Patients had a median age of 60 years, symptoms for 5 days, and 207 of 416 patients received CP therapy. During the 28 day follow-up, 28 patients were hospitalized and two died. The OR for an improved disease severity score with CP was 0.86 (95% credible interval, 0.59-1.22). The OR was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.33-1.02) for patients with ≤5 days of symptoms. The hazard ratio for hospital admission was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.28-1.34). No difference was found in viral RNA excretion or in the duration of symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with early COVID-19, CP therapy did not improve the 5-point disease severity score.

Assessing Performance and Clinical Usefulness in Prediction Models With Survival Outcomes: Practical Guidance for Cox Proportional Hazards Models.

Risk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time horizon at which predictions can be made. This article describes measures to evaluate predictions and the potential improvement in decision making from survival models based on Cox proportional hazards regression.As a motivating case study, the authors consider the prediction of the composite outcome of recurrence or death (the "event") in patients with breast cancer after surgery. They developed a simple Cox regression model with 3 predictors, as in the Nottingham Prognostic Index, in 2982 women (1275 events over 5 years of follow-up) and externally validated this model in 686 women (285 events over 5 years). Improvement in performance was assessed after the addition of progesterone receptor as a prognostic biomarker.The model predictions can be evaluated across the full range of observed follow-up times or for the event occurring by the end of a fixed time horizon of interest. The authors first discuss recommended statistical measures that evaluate model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, or overall performance. Further, they evaluate the potential clinical utility of the model to support clinical decision making according to a net benefit measure. They provide SAS and R code to illustrate internal and external validation.The authors recommend the proposed set of performance measures for transparent reporting of the validity of predictions from survival models.

Development of the OPAL prediction model for prediction of live birth in couples with recurrent pregnancy loss: protocol for a prospective and retrospective cohort study in the Netherlands.

INTRODUCTION: Recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL) is defined as the loss of two or more conceptions before 24 weeks gestation. Despite extensive diagnostic workup, in only 25%-40% an underlying cause is identified. Several factors may increase the risk for miscarriage, but the chance of a successful pregnancy is still high. Prognostic counselling plays a significant role in supportive care. The main limitation in current prediction models is the lack of a sufficiently large cohort, adjustment for relevant risk factors, and separation between cumulative live birth rate and the success chance in the next conception. In this project, we aim to make an individualised prognosis for the future chance of pregnancy success, which could lead to improved well-being and the ability managing reproductive choices. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In this multicentre study, we will include both a prospective and a retrospective cohort of at least 931 and 1000 couples with RPL, respectively. Couples who have visited one of the three participating university hospitals in the Netherlands for intake are eligible for the study participation, with a follow-up duration of 5 years. General medical and obstetric history and reports of pregnancies after the initial consultation will be collected. Multiple imputation will be performed to cope for missing data. A Cox proportional hazards model for time to pregnancy will be developed to estimate the cumulative chance of a live birth within 3 years after intake. To dynamically estimate the chance of an ongoing pregnancy, given the outcome of earlier pregnancies after intake, a logistic regression model will be developed. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Medical Ethical Research Committee of the Leiden University Medical Center approved this study protocol (N22.025). There are no risks or burden associated with this study. Participant written informed consent is required for both cohorts. Findings will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05167812.

Prospective individual patient data meta-analysis of two randomized trials on convalescent plasma for COVID-19 outpatients.

Data on convalescent plasma (CP) treatment in COVID-19 outpatients are scarce. We aimed to assess whether CP administered during the first week of symptoms reduced the disease progression or risk of hospitalization of outpatients. Two multicenter, double-blind randomized trials (NCT04621123, NCT04589949) were merged with data pooling starting when <20% of recruitment target was achieved. A Bayesian-adaptive individual patient data meta-analysis was implemented. Outpatients aged ≥50 years and symptomatic for ≤7days were included. The intervention consisted of 200-300mL of CP with a predefined minimum level of antibodies. Primary endpoints were a 5-point disease severity scale and a composite of hospitalization or death by 28 days. Amongst the 797 patients included, 390 received CP and 392 placebo; they had a median age of 58 years, 1 comorbidity, 5 days symptoms and 93% had negative IgG antibody-test. Seventy-four patients were hospitalized, 6 required mechanical ventilation and 3 died. The odds ratio (OR) of CP for improved disease severity scale was 0.936 (credible interval (CI) 0.667-1.311); OR for hospitalization or death was 0.919 (CI 0.592-1.416). CP effect on hospital admission or death was largest in patients with ≤5 days of symptoms (OR 0.658, 95%CI 0.394-1.085). CP did not decrease the time to full symptom resolution. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04621123 and NCT04589949. REGISTRATION: NCT04621123 and NCT04589949 on https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov.

Short-term and long-term prognostic value of histological response and intensified chemotherapy in osteosarcoma: a retrospective reanalysis of the BO06 trial.

OBJECTIVES: Cure rate models accounting for cured and uncured patients, provide additional insights into long and short-term survival. We aim to evaluate the prognostic value of histological response and chemotherapy intensification on the cure fraction and progression-free survival (PFS) for the uncured patients. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of a randomised controlled trial, MRC BO06 (EORTC 80931). SETTING: Population-based study but proposed methodology can be applied to other trial designs. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 497 patients with resectable highgrade osteosarcoma, of which 118 were excluded because chemotherapy was not started, histological response was not reported, abnormal dose was reported or had disease progression during treatment. INTERVENTIONS: Two regimens with the same anticipated cumulative dose (doxorubicin 6×75 mg/m2/week; cisplatin 6×100 mg/m2/week) over different time schedules: every 3 weeks in regimen-C and every 2 weeks in regimen-DI. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is PFS computed from end of treatment because cure, if it occurs, may happen at any time during treatment. A mixture cure model is used to study the effect of histological response and intensified chemotherapy on the cure status and PFS for the uncured patients. RESULTS: Histological response is a strong prognostic factor for the cure status (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.75 to 5.17), but it has no clear effect on PFS for the uncured patients (HR 0.78, -95% CI 0.53 to 1.16). The cure fractions are 55% (46%-63%) and 29% (22%-35%), respectively, among patients with good and poor histological response (GR, PR). The intensified regimen was associated with a higher cure fraction among PR (OR 1.90, 95% CI 0.93 to 3.89), with no evidence of effect for GR (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.59). CONCLUSIONS: Accounting for cured patients is valuable in distinguishing the covariate effects on cure and PFS. Estimating cure chances based on these prognostic factors is relevant for counselling patients and can have an impact on treatment decisions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN86294690.

Birthweight and isolated congenital heart defects - A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Birthweight (BW) is an important prognostic factor in newborns with congenital heart defects (CHD). OBJECTIVES: To give an overview of the literature on BW z-score in children with isolated CHD. SEARCH STRATEGY: A systematic search was performed on isolated CHD and BW in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, COCHRANE Library and Emcare. SELECTION CRITERIA: Neonates with isolated CHD were included if a BW percentile, BW z-score or % small-or-gestational age (SGA) was reported. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: BW z-score and percentage SGA were pooled with random-effect meta-analysis. Quality and risk of bias were assessed using the modified Newcastle Ottawa Scale. MAIN RESULTS: Twenty-three articles (27 893 cases) were included. BW z-scores were retrieved from 11 articles, resulting in a pooled z-score of -0.20 (95% CI -0.50 to 0.11). The overall pooled prevalence of SGA <10th percentile was 16.0% (95% CI 11.4-20.5; 14 studies). Subgroup analysis of major CHD showed similar results (BW z-score -0.23 and percentage SGA 16.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Overall BW in isolated CHD is within range of normality but impaired, with a 1.6-fold higher risk of SGA, irrespective of the type of CHD (major CHD vs all CHD combined). Our findings underline the association between CHD and BW. The use of BW z-scores provides insight into growth of all fetuses with CHD. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Infants with a congenital heart defect (CHD) have a lower birthweight z-score and a higher incidence of small-for-gestational age (<10th percentile). This was encountered both in the major CHD-group as well as in all-CHD combined group analysis. Future research on the association between birthweight and CHD should include all types of CHDs (including mild cardiac defects) and placental-related disease, such as pre-eclampsia. We advocate the use of international standardised fetal growth and birthweight charts in CHD research.

Lessons learnt when accounting for competing events in the external validation of time-to-event prognostic models.

BACKGROUND: External validation of prognostic models is necessary to assess the accuracy and generalizability of the model to new patients. If models are validated in a setting in which competing events occur, these competing risks should be accounted for when comparing predicted risks to observed outcomes. METHODS: We discuss existing measures of calibration and discrimination that incorporate competing events for time-to-event models. These methods are illustrated using a clinical-data example concerning the prediction of kidney failure in a population with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), using the guideline-recommended Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). The KFRE was developed using Cox regression in a diverse population of CKD patients and has been proposed for use in patients with advanced CKD in whom death is a frequent competing event. RESULTS: When validating the 5-year KFRE with methods that account for competing events, it becomes apparent that the 5-year KFRE considerably overestimates the real-world risk of kidney failure. The absolute overestimation was 10%age points on average and 29%age points in older high-risk patients. CONCLUSIONS: It is crucial that competing events are accounted for during external validation to provide a more reliable assessment the performance of a model in clinical settings in which competing risks occur.

Choosing and changing the analysis scale in non-inferiority trials with a binary outcome.

BACKGROUND: The size of the margin strongly influences the required sample size in non-inferiority and equivalence trials. What is sometimes ignored, however, is that for trials with binary outcomes, the scale of the margin - risk difference, risk ratio or odds ratio - also has a large impact on power and thus on sample size requirement. When considering several scales at the design stage of a trial, these sample size consequences should be taken into account. Sometimes, changing the scale may be needed at a later stage of a trial, for example, when the event proportion in the control arm turns out different from expected. Also after completion of a trial, a switch to another scale is sometimes made, for example, when using a regression model in a secondary analysis or when combining study results in a meta-analysis that requires unifying scales. The exact consequences of such switches are currently unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: This article first outlines sample size consequences for different choices of analysis scale at the design stage of a trial. We add a new result on sample size requirement comparing the risk difference scale with the risk ratio scale. Then, we study two different approaches to changing the analysis scale after the trial has commenced: (1) mapping the original non-inferiority margin using the event proportion in the control arm that was anticipated at the design stage or (2) mapping the original non-inferiority margin using the observed event proportion in the control arm. We use simulations to illustrate consequences on type I and type II error rates. Methods are illustrated on the INES trial, a non-inferiority trial that compared single birth rates in subfertile couples after different fertility treatments. Our results demonstrate large differences in required sample size when choosing between risk difference, risk ratio and odds ratio scales at the design stage of non-inferiority trials. In some cases, the sample size requirement is twice as large on one scale compared with another. Changing the scale after commencing the trial using anticipated proportions mainly impacts type II error rate, whereas switching using observed proportions is not advised due to not maintaining type I error rate. Differences were more pronounced with larger margins. CONCLUSIONS: Trialists should be aware that the analysis scale can have large impact on type I and type II error rates in non-inferiority trials.

The Disconnect Between Development and Intended Use of Clinical Prediction Models for Covid-19: A Systematic Review and Real-World Data Illustration.

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has boosted the appearance of clinical predictions models in medical literature. Many of these models aim to provide guidance for decision making on treatment initiation. Special consideration on how to account for post-baseline treatments is needed when developing such models. We examined how post-baseline treatment was handled in published Covid-19 clinical prediction models and we illustrated how much estimated risks may differ according to how treatment is handled. Methods: Firstly, we reviewed 33 Covid-19 prognostic models published in literature in the period up to 5 May 2020. We extracted: (1) the reported intended use of the model; (2) how treatment was incorporated during model development and (3) whether the chosen analysis strategy was in agreement with the intended use. Secondly, we used nationwide Dutch data on hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 to illustrate how estimated mortality risks will differ when using four different analysis strategies to model ICU treatment. Results: Of the 33 papers, 21 (64%) had misalignment between intended use and analysis strategy, 7 (21%) were unclear about the estimated risk and only 5 (15%) had clear alignment between intended use and analysis strategy. We showed with real data how different approaches to post-baseline treatment yield different estimated mortality risks, ranging between 33 and 46% for a 75 year-old patient with two medical conditions. Conclusions: Misalignment between intended use and analysis strategy is common in reported Covid-19 clinical prediction models. This can lead to considerable under or overestimation of intended risks.

Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Markers and Time-to-Event Outcomes: An Application and Tutorial in Patients After Surgical Repair of Transposition of the Great Arteries.

BACKGROUND: Most patients with congenital heart disease survive into adulthood; however, residual abnormalities remain and management of the patients is life-long and personalized. Patients with surgical repair of transposition of the great arteries, for example, face the risk to develop neoaortic valve regurgitation. Cardiologists update the prognosis of the patient intuitively with updated information of the cardiovascular status of the patient, for instance from echocardiographic imaging. METHODS: Usually a time-dependent version of the Cox model is used to analyze repeated measurements with a time-to-event outcome. New statistical methods have been developed with multiple advantages, of which the most prominent one being the joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event outcome. In this tutorial, the joint modeling framework is introduced and applied to patients with transposition of the great arteries after surgery with a long-term follow-up, where repeated echocardiographic values of the neoaortic root are evaluated against the risk of neoaortic valve regurgitation. RESULTS: The data are analyzed with the time-dependent Cox model as benchmark method, and the results are compared with a joint model, leading to different conclusions. The flexibility of the joint model is shown by adding the growth rate of the neoaortic root to the model and adding repeated values of body surface area to obtain a multimarker model. Lastly, it is demonstrated how the joint model can be used to obtain personalized dynamic predictions of the event. CONCLUSIONS: The joint model for longitudinal and time-to-event data is an attractive method to analyze data in follow-up studies with repeated measurements. Benefits of the method include using the estimated natural trajectory of the longitudinal outcome, great flexibility through multiple extensions, and dynamic individualized predictions.

Early diagnosis of coeliac disease in the Preventive Youth Health Care Centres in the Netherlands: study protocol of a case finding study (GLUTENSCREEN).

Introduction: Coeliac disease (CD) occurs in 1% of the population, develops early in life and is severely underdiagnosed. Undiagnosed and untreated disease is associated with short-term and long-term complications. The current healthcare approach is unable to solve the underdiagnosis of CD and timely diagnosis and treatment is only achieved by active case finding. Aim: to perform a case finding project to detect CD children who visit the Youth Health Care Centres (YHCCs) in a well-described region in the Netherlands to evaluate whether it is feasible, cost-effective and well accepted by the population. Methods/analysis: Prospective intervention cohort study. Parents of all children aged 12 months and 4 years attending the YHCCs for a regular visit are asked whether their child has one or more CD-related symptoms from a standardised list. If so, they will be invited to participate in the case finding study. After informed consent, a point of care test (POCT) to assess CD-specific antibodies against tissue transglutaminase (TG2A) is performed onsite the YHCCs. If the POCT is positive, CD is highly suspected and the child will be referred to hospital for definitive diagnosis according to the Guideline Coeliac Disease of the European Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition guideline. Main outcomes: Incidence rate of new CD diagnoses in the study region in comparison to the one in the same age diagnosed by standard of care in the rest of the Netherlands.Feasibility and cost-effectiveness of active CD case finding at the YHCCs. All costs of active case finding, diagnostics and treatment of CD and the potential short-term and long-term consequences of the disease will be calculated for the setting with and without case finding.Ethical acceptability: by questionnaires on parental and healthcare professionals' satisfaction.A statistical analysis plan was prepared and is published on the GLUTENSCREEN website (Statistical-Analysis-Plan-11-5-2021_def.pdf (glutenscreen.nl) and added as annex 1). Ethics and dissemination: The Medical Ethics Committee Leiden approved this study. If we prove that case finding at the YHCC is feasible, cost-effective and well accepted by the population, implementation is recommended. Trial registration number: NL63291.058.17.

Serial neurosonography in fetuses with congenital heart defects shows mild delays in cortical development.

INTRODUCTION: Neurodevelopmental delay is more common in children born with congenital heart defects (CHD), even with optimal perinatal and peri-operative care. It is hypothesized that fetuses with CHD are prone to neurological impairment in utero due to their cardiac defect, possibly leading to delayed cortical development. METHODS: Cerebral cortical maturation was assessed with advanced neurosonographic examinations every 4 weeks in fetuses with CHD and compared to control fetuses. Five different primary fissures and four areas were scored (ranging 0-5) by blinded examiners using a cortical maturation scheme. RESULTS: Cortical staging was assessed in 574 ultrasound examinations in 85 CHD fetuses and 61 controls. Small differences in grading were seen in Sylvian and cingulate fissures. (Sylvian fissure: -0.12 grade, 95% CI (-0.23; -0.01) p = 0.05, cingulate fissure: -0.24 grade, 95% CI (-0.38; -0.10) p = <0.001. Other cortical areas showed normal maturation as compared to control fetuses. CONCLUSION: Small differences were seen in three of the nine analyzed cortical areas in CHD fetuses, in contrast to previous reports on progressive third-trimester delay. The clinical implications of the small differences however, remain unknown.